Airlines Are Failing To Reduce Carbon Pollution

Airlines and aircraft manufacturers are not on track to meet their own climate goals, according to an analysis released today by the Rocky Mountain Institute, which calls for a global forum where industry leaders can tackle their emission problem free from competitive dynamics.
"Aviation needs a radical new plan to achieve its climate goals," according to an RMI report released this morning. "Industry emissions are growing faster than original forecasts and long-term solutions are nowhere in sight."
The airlines could halve their fuel use and prevent seven billion tons of carbon emissions by adopting revolutionary new aircraft designs with blended-wing technology and other breakthrough features, according to Adam Klauber, a principal, and Isaac Toussie, a senior associate, in the think tank's Industries Program. But the industry has not brought these designs closer to takeoff, RMI says: "There is no clear path nor timeline for revolutionary designs in commercial aircraft."
Boeing has been testing a blended-wing design, but widespread production reportedly remains distant.
Manufacturers would have to invest massively to tool up for the new designs, and airlines would have to change how they do business, the analysts say. "Existing practices offer cost-effective aircraft-size options for airlines with changes limited to the length of the cabin; blended-wing models would disrupt this advantage," they say, and "Airlines prefer uniformity in their fleets to maximize flexibility for pilot changes and simplify maintenance."
Airports would have to widen taxiways.
Nonetheless, innovative designs have been integral to industry promises to reduce emissions 50 percent by 2050.
The airlines' efforts at efficiency are not addressing the fast growth in emissions, RMI states, which have increased by 5 percent annually over the past four years.
Airlines have been slow to improve efficiency because they have already optimized passenger load, so they have few seats to fill, RMI says. The airlines are also flying more aircraft to meet growing demand, prompted by low fuel prices, and they may be retaining aging aircraft longer.
Speaking before the release of the RMI report, and not in response to it, Etihad's sustainability manager attributed the industry's performance to a late start.
"I think it’s safe to say that aviation was rather late in the game compared to ground transport," she said at the Atlantic Council's Global Energy Forum this month in Abu Dhabi. "We had rather strict requirements. We didn’t want to have to modify our aircraft. We can't have the luxury of some aircraft needing one type of fuel and other aircraft needing another. Can you imagine the terrible situation you’d end up in with aircraft not being able to fly to certain places because biofuel wasn’t available?"
Nonetheless, she said, the industry's late start means it can learn from the mistakes of others. She added that the industry doesn't get credit for some accomplishments, such as a 70 percent increase in the efficiency of jet fuels, because "We just weren't good at getting our message out.
"Across the industry we’re very well aware of sustainability," she said. "It’s got to be very high on the agenda."
The aviation industry has proposed shifting to sustainable aviation fuel, but according to RMI, sustainable fuel makes up less than 0.01 percent of global consumption.
Sustainable fuel is produced at only one dedicated production refinery in the world, and it costs two to three times what airlines pay for fossil fuel.
The International Civil Aviation Organization estimates that 140 new commercial production facilities are needed each year between now and 2050 to move the industry to cleaner fuels.
Electric aircraft could prove to be part of the solution, RMI says, but they are not likely to have an impact until after 2030.