If the United States elects a new president in November, he or she will encounter a world more united and adamant in support of the Paris Agreement on Climate Change.
That unity and ardour stems from U.S. President Donald Trump’s efforts to withdraw from the agreement, said Jacob Werksman, principal adviser to the European Commission’s Directorate General for Climate Action.
“What I can say is that the immediate impact of the Trump Administration's withdrawal from Paris I think actually helped to galvanize the international community around Paris,” Werksman said in a podcast interview with Harvard University economist Robert Stavins.
After Trump rejected Paris, the only other holdout countries, Syria and Nicaragua, agreed to ratify it. Syria had been unable to participate because of its civil war. Nicaragua had held back because, it argued, the agreement was not strong enough.
Perhaps more importantly, no other countries followed Trump’s lead, Werksman added, including other countries led by right-wing populists (think Brazil and the Philippines).
“I think because they recognize their constituencies want them to do something about climate change, so it wouldn't have been a good political move for them to do,” he said.
At subsequent meetings of international groupings—like the G7 Summit in Biarritz last year—other countries have continued to isolate the Trump Administration by expressing strong support for Paris.
“So I think that actually helped shore things up for the time being.”
Because of the agreement terms, Trump’s withdrawal doesn’t officially occur until Nov. 4, which just happens to be the day after the U.S. presidential election.
December will see the fifth anniversary of the Paris Agreement, the deadline for all countries to increase their climate-mitigation ambitions.
“Some of them are hesitating, to see what the results of the US election might be, on the theory that the international community as a whole is likely to move more ambitiously with renewed U.S. participation and U.S. leadership,” Werksman said.
“That could be the beginning of a hesitation that could worry and trouble the Paris Agreement over the longer term.”
Stavins asked Werksman what happens if Trump wins in November.
He replied, “I try not to have to contemplate that future.”